FuelWatch uses official US government data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Here's exactly what that means, where the numbers come from, and what the limitations are.
Where the prices come from
Every week, the EIA publishes retail gasoline and diesel prices based on surveys of gas stations nationwide. This data has been collected since the early 1990s, which is why FuelWatch has historical charts going back to 1993 for some states.
FuelWatch automatically pulls new data every Tuesday at 11 AM Eastern. The EIA typically publishes its weekly update on Monday or Tuesday morning. Once the sync runs, all prices on the site update within minutes.
The prices shown are weekly averages, not real-time. If you filled up this morning and the price was different from what FuelWatch shows, that's because the EIA data reflects the previous week's average, not today's spot price. For real-time station-level prices, tools like GasBuddy are better. FuelWatch is built for the bigger picture: trends, history, state comparisons, and forecasts.
PADD regions and regional estimates
This is important to understand. The EIA does not publish direct state-level price data for all 50 states. Only 9 states have direct weekly price reporting. The other 41 use regional estimates.
The EIA divides the country into 5 Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs):
- PADD 1 (East Coast) Maine to Florida
- PADD 2 (Midwest) Ohio to Nebraska, Great Lakes and Plains
- PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) Texas to New Mexico, plus Alabama and Mississippi
- PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) Montana to Arizona
- PADD 5 (West Coast) Washington to Hawaii, plus Alaska
For the 41 states without direct EIA data, FuelWatch shows the PADD regional average. When you hover over one of these states on the map, you'll see a small amber note that says "Regional estimate (PADD X)" so you know.
What does this mean in practice? If you're looking at Idaho, the price shown is actually the PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) regional average, not a price specific to Idaho. Idaho's actual average could be a few cents higher or lower. States within the same PADD will show identical prices.
This is a real limitation, and we want to be upfront about it. The EIA doesn't survey enough stations in each state to publish reliable state-level data for all 50 states. The PADD regional average is the best available official data for those states. It's directionally correct and useful for tracking trends, but not precise to the penny for any given state.
The forecast line
On the national price chart, you'll see a dotted line extending into the future. That's the EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast.
The STEO is published monthly. It projects national average gasoline and diesel prices about 18 months into the future based on models of supply, demand, crude oil prices, refinery capacity, and economic conditions.
Here's the honest truth about this forecast: it's always wrong in the details. The EIA revises the STEO every month as new data comes in, and the actual price path regularly diverges from the projection by 20 to 50 cents per gallon or more. Nobody predicted $5 gas in 2022. Nobody predicted the COVID crash to under $2 in 2020.
The forecast is most useful for understanding the general direction. Think of it as "here's where prices are heading, assuming nothing unexpected happens." Something unexpected always happens. The question is whether it pushes prices up or down.
We show the STEO forecast because it's the best publicly available projection from a credible source. Treat it as a guide, not a guarantee.
Data freshness
FuelWatch syncs with the EIA every Tuesday at 11 AM ET via an automated process. If the EIA delays its release (which occasionally happens around holidays), the site will show the most recent available data until the next successful sync.
Historical data is cumulative. Once a week's prices are recorded, they don't change. The entire historical dataset, going back to 1993, is available on the state pages and the price history page.
Questions or corrections
If you spot something that looks wrong, the source is always the EIA. You can verify any number on FuelWatch against the EIA's own weekly fuel prices page. If our numbers don't match theirs, something broke on our end, and we want to know about it.