Every spring, the same question comes up: how bad will gas prices get this summer? Here's what the data actually says heading into summer 2026, and what could change the picture.
What the EIA forecast shows
FuelWatch displays the EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast as a dotted line on the national chart. The STEO is the government's best estimate of where energy prices are heading over the next 12 to 18 months.
As of the latest update, the EIA projects national average regular gasoline prices to be in the mid-$3 range through summer 2026. That's roughly in line with where prices have been sitting since late 2023. No dramatic spike, no dramatic drop.
But here's the thing about forecasts: they're always wrong in the details. The EIA revises the STEO every month, and the actual price path will depend on things nobody can predict with certainty.
What could push prices higher
A supply disruption. Refinery outages, pipeline problems, or a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast could tighten supply fast. The 2022 spike wasn't caused by crude oil alone. Refinery capacity was already tight when Russia invaded Ukraine, and everything compounded.
Stronger-than-expected demand. If the economy runs hotter than expected and people drive more, demand could outpace supply. Summer driving season always pushes demand up, but a strong economy amplifies it.
Crude oil price spike. OPEC production cuts, geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, or any disruption to global crude supply would flow through to pump prices within a few weeks.
What could push prices lower
Weak economy. If consumer spending slows and people drive less, demand drops and prices follow. The quickest way to kill high gas prices is a recession. Nobody wants that solution, but it's how the market works.
Increased supply. US shale production continues to grow, and OPEC could choose to increase output to defend market share. More supply means lower prices.
Mild hurricane season. If the Gulf Coast avoids major storms, refineries run at full capacity through the summer and supply stays robust.
How accurate are these forecasts?
Honestly, not great for specific price levels. The EIA's STEO is useful for direction and general range, but it regularly misses the actual number by 20 to 50 cents per gallon. Nobody predicted $5 gas in 2022. Nobody predicted the COVID crash to under $2 in 2020.
The forecast is best understood as "here's where prices are heading assuming nothing unexpected happens." Something unexpected always happens. The question is whether it pushes prices up or down.
What you can actually do
You can't control crude oil prices or hurricane paths. But you can watch the data and plan accordingly.
The FuelWatch map shows current prices for all 50 states, updated weekly. The historical chart shows where we've been. And the STEO forecast line shows the government's best guess at where we're going.
If you want to know the moment prices cross a threshold that matters to you, set up a price alert. It's free, and you'll get an email when prices move past your number.